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Haven't done a betting update for a while, and the fallout from Friday's eviction has been very interesting. (For the most part I'm going to refer to odds on Betfair here: the more traditional bookies tend to be a bit slower to follow trends.)

 

Alex has been favourite for a while now, but during Friday (pre-show) she started to become odd-on favourite - i.e. the likelihood of her winning is now considered better than 50/50! Not certain, but I think that's a first for any HM this series.

 

The odds for all other HMs slipped a bit against Alex, but the big loser was Jay: he was a close 3rd at 6/1 prior to the evcition show, but is now 4th at 9/1 and continuing to lengthen.

Aaron remains 2nd, but his odds have improved slightly. Biggest winner though was Faye: she had previously been in the "second tier" alongside Tom and Louise with odds greater than 20/1, but she's now ahead of Harry with some bookies, and ahead of Jay in 3rd with Betfair!

 

Jemma and Anton remain rank outsiders, though it's possible Jemma's odds might shift once other HMs have been able to nominate her and we therefore get some indication of her popularity.

 

Current Betfair Odds:

Alex: 37/50

Aaron: 43/10

Faye: 17/2

Jay: 9/1

Harry: 21/2

Tom: 31/1

Louise: 33/1

Anton: 170/1

Jemma: 199/1

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Originally Posted by Baz:
Originally Posted by Yogi19:

Why is Harry so far down the betting? - He is miles better than Jay and Faye.

I love Harry.

Me too  But  as long as Jay keeps heading south then I can live with it...... cos Faye will trip herself up sooner or later....

Hi Baz.

The further south Jay goes, the better!

You are right, Faye's mood swings and  mean she will fall from grace.

Yogi19
Originally Posted by Yogi19:
Originally Posted by Baz:
Originally Posted by Yogi19:

Why is Harry so far down the betting? - He is miles better than Jay and Faye.

I love Harry.

Me too  But  as long as Jay keeps heading south then I can live with it...... cos Faye will trip herself up sooner or later....

Hi Baz.

The further south Jay goes, the better!

You are right, Faye's mood swings and  mean she will fall from grace.

Amen to that..... the basement would do for me..... 

Baz
Originally Posted by Yogi19:

Why is Harry so far down the betting? - He is miles better than Jay and Faye.

I love Harry.

That's got to be one of the key questions of the series so far.

 

I should stress that he isn't out of the running by any means: he and Fay have remained in touch with the leading pack, and I'm reminded of Paddy's odds in CBB. Also, he's consistently been 2nd favourite on DS (although he's recently lost support to Alex and Aaron).

 

But still: he's been a major player this year. He's not in a house relationship, but then Alex isn't either, and Louise (who?) is. So why isn't he in the leading pack?

Perhaps the problem is that if you look at the HMs he hangs around with (Aaron, Alex), he's probably perceived as the lesser partner (and his apparent freindship with Anton wouldn't be seen as "a good thing").

 

And then there's the elephant in the room: foxhunting. I could see that being a deciding factor if it were to come down to the wire, but it can't be the only reason, surely?

Eugene's Lair

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