@Former Member posted:Hey @Eugene's Lair be curious to know how you think this will pan out now.
Roxan 
:
Just as trying to predict the weather more than 5 days in advance is pointless, I think we’re now in a “Butterfly Effect”-type scenario where there are so many variables in play that anything could happen. That said, there are a few basic observations which many people including myself have been worrying about since day one: apologies in advance if any/all of the following is teaching you to suck eggs... 
1) This won’t be over till we get a vaccine. Not a comfortable thought, but even with some sort of treatment (and that’s not as likely as some are claiming/hoping…), the coronavirus is going to keep coming back until we’ve got proper immunity. That’s why they’re now talking about some sort of social distancing for the rest of the year… 
2) Different parts of the world are being infected at different times and at different rates. This should be pretty obvious, but a lot of people – particularly some politicians – still don’t seem to have fully grasped what that means in practise (e.g. consider the fuss over Georgia State coming out of lockdown...). Some countries are starting to recover from outbreaks, but others are still to undergo one – and that could cause the dreaded “Second Wave” in those first affected…
I’ve been worried about Africa since the beginning: South Africa’s coping incredibly well (thanks to systems previously established to fight HIV and TB), but it's still to hit its peak, and the rest of the continent remains frighteningly unprepared. Others have been worried about South America: it’s not doing too bad so far, but Brazil’s a real worry that could hurt the rest of the continent, as Bolsonaro’s another arrogant Trump clone who’s still in denial.
India and Russia also appear to be reporting misleadingly-low infection rates which could mean delayed peaks (China recently expressed concern about fresh infections from across the Russian border). There’s also Japan, but I think they’ll remain isolated.
And then there’s the general worry of increased infections in the Southern Hemisphere as it enters Winter…
If/when a second wave hits without a vaccine or other form of herd immunity, we’ll be straight back into lockdown… 
3) Most of the Northern Hemisphere will still be recovering when the Winter Flu season hits. This hadn’t initially occurred to me, but as someone who always gets a flu jab I’m starting to get concerned. Even Trump’s mentioned the risk of dealing with coronavirus and flu at the same time, but I’m sure he’s underestimating it. As with a ”Second Wave”, we could find ourselves ramping-down just as we need to prepare again. I’m also worried that the preparation and availability of the flu jab could be affected by the continuing fight against COVID-19.
I hope all this doesn’t give you sleepless nights, folks…
