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Suricat
quote:
This is a part of the thermostat that controls Earth's overall climate


I think his contention is that it's a very major part. I've tried to find out if such a process is in the models (or if they predict it accurately). Again we need Steve_M. If not reflected in the models then they are clearly more than worthless at predicting climate in their current form.
SO
quote:
Originally posted by Son of Mulder:
Suricat, I think you'll enjoy this essayif you haven't already read it.

A remarkably clear description of a mechanism that will act as a thermostat on the warming properties of CO2 or other warming sources.


Nice read SoM, I enjoyed it so much I went searching for more from Mr Eschenbach and found this most interesting. You and suricat have probably seen it on CA but I thought I'd post it for any interested onlookers Smiler
Ensign Muf
Son of Mulder.

quote:

I've tried to find out if such a process is in the models (or if they predict it accurately).

Well I've only looked into the GISS Model E before (I think), but I didn't see anything representative of true cloud in the programme (there just wasn't a fine enough resolution if I remember correctly). Why don't you take a look.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/modeling/gcms.html
There are a few GCMs on that site. I can't remember the HD space needed for the download so check first. There's also an editing gismo to use with your PC so that you can easily read and set the FORTRAN scripts.

It's all very interesting, but also time consuming. The thing is supposed to be written in FORTRAN, but when you look at it with the editing tool you'll find that nearly every language under the Sun is in there (including Java, Python and Rose) so perhaps the script is really a compiler. Cobbly Worlds first introduced me to this, when he was around, but I just can't get the time in big enough chunks to get back into it. The UK Met Office has other versions. Enjoy!

Any queries? I'll try to help!

Best regards, suricat.
S
Son of Mulder.

On the subject of GCMs, it's a while since I visited the CA blog so I was surprised to read this;
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6234#more-6234

Super-Parameterization! Well I did say that they should treat GCMs like video gaming machines. This extra resolution to each cell apparently shows WV and low cloud as more negative than previously shown by models (wouldn't you just know it). However, it wouldn't matter if they duplicated a parallel Earth accurately, they could only hind cast because we can't predict the future more than for a few days ahead with an acceptable level of certainty.


Reading about this brought me to remember our discussions on C4 about constant average global RH and the possibility that total SH + atmospheric water could be a metric for an average 10 day global temp. Well moving on from that, there are an awful lot of metrics that seem to coincide with one-another in a "loose relationship" that may explain a tipping point or two. I'll explain.

The Physical Proponents.
1. Sea surface temp (SST) and boundary layer atmosphere temp are ultimately responsible for the level of specific humidity (SH) [physical and factual observation].
2. Diurnal temp instability, land area and contour, advection, etc. are responsible for Earth's unique default average global relative humidity (RH) [physical and factual observation].
3. Although solar variance is minor, the propensity of sunspots is directly proportional to the level of ultraviolet (UV) insolation of Earth and this varies greatly [physical and factual observation].
4. The average global temp anomaly record indicates much coincidence of elevated temps during sustained high sunspot count periods. Thus, sustained elevated UV insolation levels seem to positively affect temps [visual comparison of graphic material with provenance].
5. Infrared (IR) and visual spectra of radiation become extinct after passing through only several metres of water and ice. However, the UV spectra of radiation that strike the Earth's surface can pass several hundreds of metres into water and ice before extinction, it also is virtually unimpeded by cloud which only diffuses UV [physical and factual observation].
6. About 90% of the greenhouse effect (GHE) for outgoing IR radiation is due to WV. Thus, about 90% of outgoing IR is thermalised below the mid troposphere region by WV, and low cloud also heavily retards, and latently buffers, outgoing IR radiation [accepted radiative theory, and physical and factual observation for latent buffering].
7. Milankovich Cycles can predict total solar insolation (TSI), but don't resolve many outcomes of historical climate. However, Milankovich Cycles don't include the level of sunspot activity (and UV insolation level) that can become the donor of energy that is able to preclude, or exclude, an ice age, as a short wavelength radiation absorbed gives more energy than a longer wavelength's radiation's absorbed energy [conjecture, as I'm unaware of any accepted comparison that combines Milankovich Cycles against sunspots with a radiative theory's impact].

The Hypothesis.
Although TSI doesn't alter to any appreciable degree due to a Milankovich Cycle, the insolation of UV to the Earth is always changing dependant upon sunspot propensity. The greater the sunspot manifestation, the greater the UV insolation level, and as we know from the history of the Maunder Minimum that this variability of UV is a causal factor to Earth's global temperature alteration (this is where I'd normally just post a link to the page of a site, but this site isn't made that way, so).
http://www.climate4you.com/
Now that you see the index page, click on the "Sun" category in the L/H sidebar to see the page that I reference.
Thus, UV is a major influence for any change to climate, or at the very least, temperatures!

It's easy to make such a statement, but it's important to describe the 'rationale' behind the 'statement' for better understanding (I'm getting back into the habit of single quotes for important parts of the post again. Sorry!).

Dependant upon the Milankovich Cycle 'level' of forcing, the solar UV radiance determines the glaciation, or non glaciation phase of Earth's climate because UV is the source of heat to the lower ocean depths that can carry the Earth through a 'glaciation phase' without it's 'actual glaciation'. I'm happy that we are at a 'high insolation point' of a 'Milankovich Cycle' at this point of 'solar minimum'.

What do you think?

Best regards, suricat.
S
Suricat
quote:
On the subject of GCMs, it's a while since I visited the CA blog so I was surprised to read this;
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6234#more-6234


Just confirms how primitive and open to potential bias the models have been.

Until the cloud stuff is understood the debates we've had about chaos etc don't become relevant. The aerosol stuff is relevant because of their potential role in the superparameterisation of clouds. The Eschenbach stuff presents an excellent way of thinking about viewing the earth (from the sun). I wish I'd thought of that back in the debates with Steve_M.

On another tack I think the study of jolts to the earth system by El Ninos and La Ninas potentially provide a way to test Eschenbach's hypothesis.

And on yet another tack did you see this on Watts up. Watt's submission is a savage indictment of the temperature measuring game in the US.
SO
Son of Mulder.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/200...-eruption/#more-8826

What a "telling" photo!

A nice picture, but it doesn't say much of the forcing to climate (whatever that constitutes). I'm curious, what do you think that this pictorial data adds to a climate debate other than justify one of the many reasons for a "space station" in orbit?

This is an obvious forcing to the regional climate, but to what extent would you expect this "one shot" phenomenon to exert a forcing to any interaction with local attractors at this level of interactivity (I know that this is a 'tall order' and I'll excuse your 'rebuttal')?


I think the "Els and Las" are the result of an MEP tipping point. The "normal mode" is El NiÃąo, but when the ocean/atmosphere interface is swamped with energy the hydrocycle response trips the region into a La NiÃąa mode. The result is a limit upon the maximum uptake of energy by the ocean. Pretty much the same as what Eschenbach postulates.

On the CA site, the question of a climate metric has been asked again. What would be your suggestion for a metric that would define the climate for a region? As I've said in the past, I think that total atmospheric column WV + water would best define this (as an H2O response seems to reflect the energy levels of many attractors), but what would be your choice for a metric?

Best regards, suricat.
S
Greying Blondie.

quote:

The factual actualities do not correspond to the fearmongering statements do they!


Welcome here Blondie (I'll ignore the "Greying").

If you understand what they are really saying then they don't, period! Nice to meet someone that seems like minded. However, I am dubious of outcomes should we ever get out of this solar minimum. Perhaps it will start all over again from the current "set point".

Best regards, suricat.
S
Son of Mulder.

quote:

Suricat, Well, well well.

Sorry, but this does not compute. A comparison of temps/warming between particular dates needs a correlation of relevant points within cycles as well.

I would normally use the European Centre, SIDC, for data ref, but their site has had broken links for a long time now. So I'll use "climate4you". Not so prestigious, but it's good and it's there.
http://www.climate4you.com/
Now click "Sun" in the L/H sidebar, then click "Solar irradiance and sunspot number" as your page menu choice.

This graph displays both solar irradiance (in red) and sunspot number (in blue) from 1979-2002. I'm afraid it doesn't extend to June 2009, but then again we already know that we are in a period with virtually no sunspots now. So during 1979 solar irradiance was at a peak, but during 2009 solar irradiance is at a trough. Thus, these periods are not directly compatible for a warming analysis.

If you doubt the validity of this falsification, scroll to the top of the page and click "Global temperature and sunspot number" as your page menu choice.

This graph depicts HadCRUT3 against sunspot numbers (it's not UHA temps, but it's the best I can find for now). I think you can easily see that heavy sunspot activity pushes temps upwards. Thus, if we were at peak sunspot activity in 2009 we would expect a more elevated temp!

I really think we should make warming comparisons at identical phases of the sunspot cycle and not at 180 deg (anti phase).

Hope this helps. Smiler

Best regards, suricat.
S
Son of Mulder & mufcdiver.

I didn't know whether to link this here, or in "The Asylum", but even Einstein had a problem with this one!
http://www.scribd.com/doc/9613...-Higgs-boson-SOLVED-
Will we see a Higgs boson, or just an "elastic" Higgs field that is the ether?

I've a problem with the density of space plasma being denser than that of matter plasma as density is a property of "matter", but space matter being without charge, or spin?

This reminds me of "leocor" and his Plasma Theory SoM (probably misspelled his user name). Smiler

Best regards, suricat.

BTW, for easier reading, just set your browser to 150% zoom, centralise the page and you'll find that the print is a lot easier to read! (edited for easier reading)
S
Last edited {1}
Suricat
quote:
Sorry, but this does not compute. A comparison of temps/warming between particular dates needs a correlation of relevant points within cycles as well.

I would normally use the European Centre, SIDC, for data ref, but their site has had broken links for a long time now. So I'll use "climate4you". Not so prestigious, but it's good and it's there.
http://www.climate4you.com/
Now click "Sun" in the L/H sidebar, then click "Solar irradiance and sunspot number" as your page menu choice.


Thanks for the Climate4you ref (a treasure trove). I'd somehow missed this site despite all the AGW related reading and googling that I do. I agree totally your point about working between similar points in the cycle. 5 years hence will be an interesting time in how these graphs evolve. Hopefully there will be greater clarity on what causes the drift between the satellite record and the terrestrial record.
SO
Son of Mulder.

quote:

Hopefully there will be greater clarity on what causes the drift between the satellite record and the terrestrial record.

A very good point SoM. The most obvious causal factor is that the surface record (terrestrial) for atmospheric temps is observed at the surface, but the nearest satellite record for surface atmospheric temps is in the low troposphere. However, there are also anomalies that the satellites observe which remain unobserved by the sensing equipment on the surface:
http://www.ssmi.com/rss_research/tmi_solar_flare.html
These spurious anomalies need to be recognised, accepted for their validity to temps and should be properly classified in the temperature record (or should that be the entropy record?).

It should be noted that, in accordance with convention, X-rays (even "soft" X-rays, or "short" UV) don't make it through the atmosphere to the surface. However, satellite observations prove otherwise!

So, what does this say about "convention"? Wink

It's way past my bedtime so I've got to go now. Sleepy

Best regards, suricat.
S
Suricat
quote:
The most obvious causal factor is that the surface record (terrestrial) for atmospheric temps is observed at the surface, but the nearest satellite record for surface atmospheric temps is in the low troposphere. However, there are also anomalies that the satellites observe which remain unobserved by the sensing equipment on the surface:



I bet it's simpler than that and related to Urban Heat Island (UHI) related influences, construction process and the fact that satellite is more truly global.
SO
Son of Mulder.

quote:

I bet it's simpler than that and related to Urban Heat Island (UHI) related influences, construction process and the fact that satellite is more truly global.

Yes! Each metric has its obfuscation and the "best estimate" can only be the most understanding equivalent between the available metrics!

"UHI" affects the surface temp record and "space weather" affects the satellite lower tropo temp record. We need to be sure that we read our multi-meter within its "half to full scale deflection" accuracy. That's why I drew your attention to the RSS anomaly. It's not true that soft X-ray and short UV makes it down to surface, but it is true that a resonant factor of these frequencies makes planet-fall as an observed "microwave signature". The energy makes it through.

To my mind, neither metric is accurate. However, a composite between the two can be assimilated into something that is between "near surface" and "surface". However, I don't like all this averaging. All that "averaging" does is to obscure the raw data that shows true energy transfer/transport!

By "construction process" do you imply graphical construction, or engineering construction (as in a UHI alteration)?


There is something that you and muf can get your "teeth into" on tamino! Look at this;
http://tamino.wordpress.com/20...-lock/#comment-32836
It's all about WV feedback.

Best regards, suricat.
S
Son of Mulder.

quote:

I can't take seriously such an article... there is no mention of clouds as a moderating factor.

That's one of the reasons that I thought you and muf would like to "get your 'teeth' into it"!

The "blog miester" at tamino is a statistical mathematician (to the best of my knowledge), and uses whatever material they find at hand. They also seem to support warmers (if this permits me to remain "PC"). However, the choice of material leaves the blog-spot in the category of "corrupted allegorical truth" by way of obfuscation!

The blog thread is about WV feedback, but the blogger introduced a graph that has little to do with any "feedback scenario" and is unconnected with the blog-thread subject (in fact the partner to the paper that the graph included advised of the graphs misuse). More to this, the legend that accompanies the graph describes an impossible observation (much to the regret of Isaac Held I would imagine [of Held & Soden]). My comment relating to this is at #14 in the "responses" que.

I'm glad that I'm an engineer and not a scientist! Wink

Best regards, suricat.
S
mufcdiver.

quote:

They've taken my comment out!!
Obviously 'wankery' is a word that they take exception to

There isn't much that they don't take exception to on that site muf.


Have you guys seen this on RC yet?
http://www.realclimate.org/ind...natural-variability/
I think the guest presentation is good, but what is the recent "variability"? All I can think of is a weaker solar cycle 23 that followed cycle 22, and our new solar cycle 24 that doesn't seem to "spark" much! I can't seriously believe that ice from the North Pole has kept Earth cool, so this must either be due to solar variability, or ocean to atmosphere temp hysteresis : insolation to ocean temp hysteresis (ocean insolation to atmosphere temp change lag : lead).

Surely, this must be either a forcing change, or a lead/lag variability?

What are your thoughts?

BTW, wasn't Skippy a kangaroo muf? Smiler

Best regards, suricat.
S
Suricat
quote:
I can't seriously believe that ice from the North Pole has kept Earth cool, so this must either be due to solar variability, or ocean to atmosphere temp hysteresis : insolation to ocean temp hysteresis (ocean insolation to atmosphere temp change lag : lead).


Try this.

I found the Realclimate article you quote a hoot. If you look at their 2nd chart that shows the record from continuously monitored sites from 1900 to 1998 where they have excised the 1998 "Super El Nino" (don't you love the evolving phraseology) the trend looks pretty flat from 1930 to 1997. When they show the first chart that has all the record (full hadcrut3 from 1950) it's pretty clear that the growth has been introduced by the non-continuously monitored sites. My scepticism just grows and grows.

They claim the continuous graph is not global but anthropic CO2 is meant to be a global signature so should be clear in the continuous non-global record.
SO
suricat (just noticed the SoM spells your name with a capital 'S')

quote:
Surely, this must be either a forcing change, or a lead/lag variability?
Coming from a school of thought where by liquid bodies of water are by far and away the biggest climate drivers, then I'd hazard a guess at both Wink(Though it depends on what your definition on 'forcing' is!) Big Grin
Ensign Muf
Son of Mulder.

quote:

I found the Realclimate article you quote a hoot.

I only quoted it "a hoot" (as you say) because the region that the "red spot" is expected in is open to TOA where IR energy is "expelled" into space. Thus, it won't get warm (or red)! That is, unless the troposphere expands by a hitherto unforeseen extent (and in that event I'd expect that region to have chaotic tendencies also, unlike the "no weather strat analogy" that the tropo extends into).
quote:

My scepticism just grows and grows.

Hardly surprising SoM, but remember that language (use of the "tongue") is always evolving. Don't know about you, but I have trouble keeping up with it. This must be either the onset of senility, or the realisation that there is a need for a basic standard. Don't worry, I'm sure you are only looking for a basic standard (there doesn't seem to be one with climate science)!
quote:

Try this.

And.
quote:

They claim the continuous graph is not global but anthropic CO2 is meant to be a global signature so should be clear in the continuous non-global record.

I've linked these two together because it leads back to many moons ago when we were discussing a "pump hunt" scenario.

Unless centrifugal effects are accepted (as well as the coriolis effect) it is impossible to rationalise PDO, or AMO with the attractors that generate their existence (or to differentiate PDO and AMO as attractors, or separate systems). Earth is still "over-spun". Thus, is not in an equilibrium of any description in the long term.

Best regards, suricat.
S
mufcdiver.

quote:

suricat (just noticed the SoM spells your name with a capital 'S')

Yes, but I don't make issue of this anymore muf. Many word processors replace a lower case letter with upper case automatically when the word is at the beginning of a sentence, or paragraph. For example, I need to make exceptions in my "word pro" word processor to be able to address you with a lower case first letter in my response. That's life! Some people need to keep a log of things and word processors tend to just get in the way sometimes. I'm OK with this (but it reflects on the other part's ability to properly communicate on the site and I know this from "Tamino").
quote:

(Though it depends on what your definition on 'forcing' is!)

Well, that has to be mostly solar. Though "other disciplines" would include attractors as "forcings" as well.

Best regards, suricat.
S
Son of Mulder.

quote:

suricat (notice the lower case, apols such sensitivity has never been my strong suit).

No problemo! There isn't much comms traffic here anyhow.
quote:

Anyway have you seen this interesting aerosol article . Makes one feel warmer and warmer as it cools.

High five SoM! This brings back memories of ocean liner "smokestack IR tracings".

I've read the article, and most of the comments, now. How come nobody even mentions "global dimming" in conjunction with black carbon?

The 'global dimming' (GD) effect of 'black carbon' (BC) is an important factor for insolation biasing. Not only does BC prevent the landfall of insolation that interacts with Earth's surface, BC also prevents the landfall of insolation that doesn't interact with Earth's surface and would normally just "bounce in and out" through the "atmospheric window".

What is more, BC gets two chances of absorbing this "bounced" energy with both "incoming" and "outgoing" (after "the bounce") radiation. This makes BC one heck of an attractor for adding energy to the atmosphere and surface, whilst at the same time reducing "cloud cover" by way of increased local temp (CC relationship for humidity) it also supplies a CCN that won't facilitate precipitation. Thus, I believe, could be an attractor that increases the altitude of the tropopause (this is speculation on my part).

The "chemist joke" caused a wry smile. "Because you're worth it", or "that'll be the bounce" (based on UK adds)? Smiler


"Makes one feel warmer and warmer as it cools"? I presume you refer to ocean heat content!

This would also be a factor of the shorter wavelengths of insolation that would make Earth-fall being attracted to the atmosphere by BC and not being permitted to penetrate to ocean depths.

Astute comment!

Best regards, suricat.
S
Son of Mulder.

Cutting back to TSI variability, have you seen this?
http://jennifermarohasy.com/bl...-official/#more-5820
It's a pity there isn't a link to the paper yet. The nearest relevant paper I can find is this pdf (less than 300kB).
http://www.nasa-news.org/resou...Soden_manuscript.pdf
The graphs on page 10 & 12 are quite "illuminating". When read with TSI in mind, it does seem that the TSI level may well tip events in "NINO" terms (both for "pump hunt" [due to WV load] and cloud cover). What's your opinion?

Best regards, suricat.
S
Son of Mulder.

quote:

suricat, it doesn't get more empirical than this

Ha (lol)! I do believe you've now taken the place of M Batchelor (only your posts are more realistic).

Yes, I saw this on WUWT earlier. Read the post, but haven't read the paper yet.

Well frankly, it could get more empirical if the source of the main forcing could be identified beyond doubt. However, it's just as well that I got cancer, got remission and then mum got ill, because I'd otherwise have a lot of capital invested in my concept car engine which looks like it isn't going to be needed! Though a road vehicle that can run at 90 MPH for an hour, then 40 MPH on petrol/diesel/paraffin/gas/whatever (coke if you like) until the battery is recharged/replaced still looks good on paper when the fuel economy is virtually doubled against contemporary vehicles.

Back to reality. Nice curves on the graphs and I notice that SW is more positive, whereas LW is more negative in the "feedback" category for observations. Bearing in mind trends that cover roughly a decade (a popular current subject), this looks like a positive feedback from SW "insolation" and thus the (11 year) "solar cycle" could well be involved (who am I kidding, I think this is it)!
quote:

I don't see how the AGWers will answer this new Linzen paper unless the physical measured record is completely wrong.

We've seen arguments on the physical measured record before. Be prepared for argument.
quote:

It looks like it's through peer review and about to be published.

More power to Lindzen et al for credibility?

I'm not one that puts confidence in published papers, though I think that this paper deserves to be published.
quote:

It will be fascinating to follow.

It'll certainly be interesting to see how this paper is received by the science community!


As an aside, you realise how it's virtually impossible to find a source for a global UV trend? Just look at this:
http://www.meteoschweiz.admin....ojekte/cost_726.html
The longest UV record known. I know this isn't a "global" record, but it's a local record of UV insolation. Let's face it, any "local record" is a record of TSI at surface and can be corrected for any local perturbations (like ozone and particulates) when the perturbation is known.

This source is a plump source for global UV levels to my mind.


Why am I interested in the UV factor of insolation? Because it factors in the deep ice and deep ocean part of insolation per se. This relates to the paper that you just posted for my awareness.

Can you see the relationship?

Best regards, suricat.
S
mufcdiver.

quote:

Global Temperature Increase Linked to 1976 Climate Shift in Pacific Ocean


Yes muf, this has diverted my attention from the paper by Lindzen et al.
Here's a copy of the paper:
http://nzclimatescience.net/im..._carter_jgr_2009.pdf
Kindly supplied by a poster at Tamino's site, which seems wholly dedicated to destroying the paper (Tamino's site that is). It seems they don't like Bob Carter there. If the download stops, just push your browser's refresh button (it happened to me).

Although the paper is quite short I haven't had time to digest it yet, but you can read my site comment @ 1:29 am. How do you feel about manipulating data to better present an effect?

Best regards, suricat.
S

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